By Daniel Vining, dan@thespeedzine.com

(AP Photo/Mark Humphrey)

Going into tomorrow’s Cup Series race in Phoenix, I had been leaning toward picking Jimmie Johnson. Historically, this is one of his best tracks. Unfortunately for him, he and his Lowe’s team have struggled this weekend, and will have to fight to earn a good finish.

Jimmie Johnson, “Without testing before the season, it’s just tough to know if the areas you’re working on during the off-season are good. We have a lot of ideas we’re trying to work through now so this weekend we haven’t had the raw speed that we had hoped to have but we’re working in a lot of areas to find speed. So I think in a couple of races from now, we’ll be where we want, but we’re going to have to deal with some tough moments I think, just because we can’t test like we used to in the old days.”

Of course every possibility exists that Johnson can come from a poor starting position to win, as he has done this several times. He starts 28th.

Last week’s surprise winner, Trevor Bayne, was no surprise for me. I picked him on the basis of his Speed Weeks performance leading up to the Daytona 500. He showed great maturity and skill negotiating his way through practice, qualifying and The Duel. In doing so, he gained the trust of the field, with four time Cup Series Champion Jeff Gordon taking the young rookie under his wing, and making Bayne his drafting partner above all others in the field. Trevor Bayne took this maturity, luck and new found trust all the way to the bank to claim his first victory in only his second start. This tied the record of Jamie McMurray, whom also won in his second start, and bested the record set by Jeff Gordon in becoming the youngest winner of The Great American Race. Phoenix however, is another story. Bayne didn’t make a full lap in practice before a brake issue sent him into the wall, destroying his racecar and sending the Daytona 500 Champion to a backup car. I don’t see see Trevor Bayne repeating the success he acheived last week, but I do look to see him perform well in his Wood Brother’s Ford. Look for Bayne to finish on the lead lap, perhaps top 15 and gain yet more trust and experience in the process.

In my opinion, this is KYLE BUSCH‘s race to loose. He has the momentum of winning the Truck Series and Nationwide Series races this weekend, and the track record of success at Phoenix.  Busch achieved this feat last season at Bristol.  In victory lane after leading every lap of Saturday’s Nationwide Series race, Busch was asked if this was a perfect race.  In response, Busch said, “Probably not,” then joked, “See??? I’m not perfect, OK!?”

Even though I predict a solid finish for last week’s winner, some of you may still be looking for an underdog to win.  This week’s Underdog to Watch is REGAN SMITH.  After a very strong Speed Weeks where he and his team showed the racing world that they were every bit as potent as Trevor Bayne, Smith rolls into Phoenix with a strong start to his season, and the cofindence that he is a contender.  To back up this surge of confidence, Smith posted the 5th best qualifiying speed and was strong in practice.

When asked about his qualifying effort, Smith said, “I was surprised. I thought it was a slow lap, to be honest with you. So I’m really pleased with that time. Sometimes when you’re fast it feels slow. We were quick when we unloaded. We were a little off in qualifying trim today so we made some adjustments today and everybody on this Furniture Row Chevy did an awesome job. We’ve been really working hard with this program to get it to this level and I feel like this is the year we can take advantage of it and hopefully that’s what we keep doing.”

One thing is certain for this week’s race.  It is the last for the current configuration, as following the race Phoenix International Raceway will undergo it’s own repaving and reconfiguration with adjustments made to the “dog leg” on the backstretch in the process.  Coming back for the fall race will mean a fresh notebook and an entirely new set of challenges, smack in the middle of the Chase.

UPDATE: Jeff Gordon passed Kyle Busch with 8 laps to go to claim his 83rd victory Sunday in Phoenix. With the win, Gordon moves to 10th on the all time Cup wins list. Kyle Busch misses his second Trifecta, but leaves Phoenix with the Cup Series Points Lead. (Feb. 27)