Ford 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway

By Jordan Bianchi, The Racing Geek

Storylines Worth Following

Denny Hamlin Coming From The Back
Entering the final round of the Chase, one of the things we’ve learned thus far is that qualifying can be a tad overrated. Look at Denny Hamlin, who has yet to start better than 17th in the last three weeks, and has an average starting position in the Chase of 17.7.

While at first blush the No. 11 Toyota qualifying 38th today may not appear to be that big of a deal – he did after all win last year starting in the exact same position – the circumstances are a bit different compared to a year ago.

In 2009, Hamlin wasn’t racing for a championship and could afford to take a chance or two on the track. That opportunity won’t be afforded to him on Sunday, as he’ll have to mix cautiousness with aggressiveness as he attempts to work his way to the front. One ill-timed move and his title hopes will have to wait another year.

Jimmie Johnson/Chad Knaus Forcing The Hand of The 11 & 29
The strategy of Jimmie Johnson and Chad Knaus is a simple one. Start near the front, lead a lap(s), and force the 11 and 29 teams into making mistakes in their efforts to keep pace. So far the plan has worked well, as Johnson clocked in the sixth fastest time today, while his two rivals will be lining up 28th (Harvick) and 38th (Hamlin).

However, there are two issues to watch for on Sunday regarding the 48s fortunes. The first is whether Johnson and Knaus have found the speed during long runs that has been absent for the majority of the Chase. Two, as this team uncharacteristically has gotten worse not better as the race moves towards its conclusion. If both of these trends continue, their run of consecutive titles will certainly come to an end at four.

Kevin Harvick Going For Broke
If he is to win his first Sprint Cup championship, Kevin Harvick not only has to outrun Denny Hamlin and Jimmie Johnson, he’s going to need both of them to stub their toes. Not a lot mind you, but enough as to where it allows Harvick to overcome a 46-point deficit.

The only way he’s going to be able to do that, is by throwing deep, taking chances and not caring about the consequences. Be it going for two tires when everyone else is taking four or trying to stretch his fuel much like the 48 team did a week ago.

Carl Going For Two In a Row
Last weekend at Phoenix, Carl Edwards snapped a 70-race winless streak. He did so in fine fashion, having what could be described as a perfect weekend. As he was fastest in every practice session; set fast time in qualifying and then went on to win his first race in close to two years.

While the Columbia, Missouri driver won’t go two-for-two in the perfect weekend department – Kasey Kahne won the pole forcing Edwards to start second – it’s looking like he may not have to wait 70 races before returning to victory lane. In fact, it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see him go back-to-back for the first time since the fall of 2008.

More Misery For Jeff Gordon?
Between not winning a race through a variety of late-race miscues, having won only once in the last three years and seeing his pit crew taken from him in a effort to bolster the chances of Jimmie Johnson, you can safely say that it’s been a trying year all-around for Jeff Gordon. Can the 85-race winner muster some magic on a track he’s never tasted victory, or will it be more of the same frustration and disappointment?

Keep An Eye on The Gas Gauge
As we saw last weekend, fuel mileage can be the great equalizer in NASCAR. And Homestead-Miami Speedway happens to be the kind of track where how much petrol you have left can come into play. Take for instance two years ago when Matt Kenseth ran out of gas with four laps to go and handed the win to teammate Carl Edwards.

With the difficulty he had in Phoenix keeping fuel in his tank, it has to be a concern of Denny Hamlin’s and his crew chief Mike Ford not to have a repeat of what happened a week ago.

For even more into the Ford 400, go to The Racing Geek.com